In this article, we explore what property economists and commentators believe will happen to real estate in Australia between now and the end of the year.
It seems that there are predictions abound concerning an impending economic downturn heading our way in September. Following on the heels of the Australian government’s stimulus package changes, the theory is that the economy may nosedive as we head towards Christmas. While the government is not completely ending the stimulus, access to the packages and schemes is becoming more stringent.
Jonathon De Brennan’s property market outlook 2020
It is difficult to predict when the COVID restrictions will completely ease. In general, people who had the intention to sell or move home pre-COVID are keen to progress with their plans sooner rather than later whilst there is still equity in their homes. The benefits of government homebuyer incentives and low-risk rates make market conditions favourable to act now.
As principal and licensed real estate agent at De Brennan Property, I do not believe Mosmanites need to be overly worried about the future of the real estate market in Mosman. In fact, since the lockdown in April, the property market in Mosman has continued to see interest from people both in and out of area and properties have continued to be bought and sold. In fact, considering we are in the winter months, our real estate agency has seen the greatest number of sales for the mid-year period since 2015.
But, my views aside, what are the economists and property market commentators predicting
CommBank’s household spending report
According to the Commonwealth Bank, home buying spending intentions in Australia improved further in July and were almost back to the highs seen in late 2019. The upsurge has been identified through a combination of monitoring the number of home loan applications and Google searches, both of which rose in the property sector.
The Stage 4 lockdown in Victoria, border closures, and a resulting drop in the population growth rate are clear sources of downside risk to home buying.
But, the RBA’s easing of monetary policy has seen mortgage rates fall to multi-generational lows, especially for fixed-rate mortgages. CommonBank data shows a rise in new mortgage applications taking advantage of low fixed rates. This should continue to ensure we have finance-ready home buyers for the remainder of 2020.
Louis Christopher property statistics
SQM managing director Louis Christopher said overall national property listings increased in July by 3.8 per cent from June 2020 but are down -1.2 per cent compared with last year. Mr Christopher said it is somewhat abnormal to record a rise in listings during the winter months. Normally, falls are recorded.
New listings in Mosman have not slowed. They have increased month-to-month since the Sydney lockdown lifted. The greatest number of listings in Mosman is with apartments – in July, 78 apartments and 57 houses were listed.
The chart below shows that 74 new properties were listed in Mosman in July 2020.
The chart below shows that a total of 57 houses were for sale in Mosman in July 2020.
The chart below shows that a total of 78 apartments were for sale in Mosman in July 2020.
Source: SQM research.
Nerida Conisbee’s economic outlook
Nerida Conisbee, Chief Economist at REA Group, is predicting a September “slope” rather than a “cliff” for several reasons. Although we are in a recession, home prices have held up. Rentals are the most affected during the present economic climate. But we are fortunate that banks continue to help mortgage holders with deferred payments and debt consolidation.
Call in the Mosman property professionals
Many homeowners are making the smart decision to take advantage of the market while it still is thriving. Mosman homeowners thinking of selling can reach out to our team of experts at De Brennan Property. We take a strategic, personalised approach to the sale of homes using the latest market data and key insights into suitable buyers, and have a broad network of contacts looking for prestige homes along Sydney’s northern beaches.